Trading EUR/AUD

The EUR/AUD currency pair provides an opportunity for traders thanks to the size of the component economies and the isolation of the pair from the US dollar. As one of the most popular forex pairs, there is a wealth of information available to assist traders in the form of charts, historical data, and expert technical analysis.

This guide will provide a discussion of the key economic impacts on EUR/AUD exchange rates as well as live chart investing strategies. We also list the top brokers and supporting platforms.

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EURAUD Chart by TradingView

The Euro

The euro is the official currency of the eurozone, and has been in place since 1999, when it was used by 11 member states of the European Union (EU). Since then, a further eight members, including four outside the EU, have adopted the euro.

By May 2022, the euro was the second most traded currency, after the US dollar, being involved in 32.3% of all forex trades.

The euro is controlled by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is responsible for monetary policy decisions and implementation.

By far, the biggest sector of the EU economy is services, accounting for 74.7% of GDP, followed by manufacturing at 23.8% and agriculture at just 1.5%. The strength of the euro tends to correlate directly to European economic activity, with more activity leading to a stronger currency.

The Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar is the currency not only of Australia but also the Cocos Islands, Norfolk Island, Christmas Island, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Nauru.

The Australian dollar is the fifth most frequently traded currency in the world, involved in 6.8% of trades. The AUD has been a free-floating currency since 1983. The country’s economy is dominated by the services sector, which accounts for 66.28%. However, the agriculture and mining sectors are also important, taking a 27.47% share of GDP.

Australia is the second-largest producer and exporter of gold, resulting in a correlation between the price of gold and the strength of the AUD. Hence the Australian dollar is often referred to as a commodity currency.

EUR/AUD; A Minor Pair

The euro-Australian dollar is known as a minor cross pair. This is due to its isolation from the USD. Because of the strong global position of the currencies in the G8, it is also not an exotic pair.

Importantly, minor pairs such as the EUR/AUD cheapen the conversion from one currency to the other as there is only one swap required, rather than needing to convert to USD and then back to the other currency.

The popularity of minor pairs for forex trading comes from their isolation and the variation in the strength of the currencies.

Generally, minor pairs are more volatile than major ones, and they allow traders to take advantage of big swings in conversion rates.

As for records, the EUR/AUD set an all-time high in October 2008 at 2.11 and an all-time low in August 2012 at 1.16.

EUR/AUD Influencing Factors

A bountiful resource for informing EUR/AUD investment strategies is presented by economic news.There are a range of regularly released reports, statistics, and graphs, as well as major political and economic events, that can impact conversion rates.

Inflation

Inflation affects all currencies, with a high inflation rate relative to other economies usually correlating to a weakening currency.The best way to measure the inflation of the European and Australian economies is through the published Consumer Price Indexes (CPIs).

Generally, the core CPIs are used by traders to inform predictions, as these exclude energy and food, which are much more volatile.

France and Germany account for 42.3% of the eurozone’s GDP after Brexit, making them significant players in the EUR/AUD pair.These two countries release their own CPI Flash Estimate (France) and Preliminary CPI (Germany) two weeks before the official CPIs, which can help inform investment decisions.

As the world is recovering from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, many countries have adopted higher interest rates.This has affected consumer purchasing power, making goods and services more expensive.

Note, analysis of the eurozone should take into account the interest rates of all its members.

Economic Growth

The overall outputs of the relevant economies have a major impact on the exchange rates between EUR and AUD. In simple terms, if the Australian economy performs better than the European economy, the AUD will strengthen against the EUR, and vice versa for European growth.

The GDP is often the best measure of economic strength and growth, with a high GDP indicative of a strong and healthy economy. The eurozone releases a quarterly GDP report two months after the end of each quarter. The Australian National Accounts (ANA) report details key economic flows and is also released two months after each quarter’s end.

Monetary Policies

Monetary policies implemented by the controlling bank of a currency can have a direct effect on the performance of its economy but also an indirect impact on exchange rates.

Big differences in the policies implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) can change the long-term forecasts of the EUR/AUD exchange rate. This can produce volatility thanks to the opportunity it provides for speculation.

The best tools to follow for the eurozone’s policies are the press releases from the ECB regarding new updates. In particular, the language used by the ECB president in the Q&A section has the largest effect. For example, if the president seems concerned about inflation, interest rates may get raised in the future, and the euro will likely appreciate.

A good example that deeply impacted the EUR was the quantitative easing policies implemented by many countries in Europe during Covid-19.

Politics

Political events in major economies within the EU and the world can influence the exchange rates of a large number of currencies and forex pairs, not just those directly affiliated with the affected economy.

For instance, the GBP and EUR were significantly affected by the uncertainty and instability that followed the Brexit referendum. However, the movements in other pairs, such as the USD/AUD, were directly attributed to the Brexit.

The EUR’s strength can be influenced politically, as the eurozone comprises many countries. This can lead to disagreements among the component governments concerning the future of the currency, the European economy, and the best monetary policies. These arguments tend to weaken the euro due to the resulting uncertainty.

Presently, the Ukrainian-Russian war is affecting the pair because of Ukraine’s proximity to the eurozone. Additionally, higher oil prices resulting from the conflict have weakened the EUR/AUD.

Balance of Payments

There are three accounts in a country’s balance of payments: the current account, capital account, and financial account. When analyzing forex trends, the current account is the most important as it details the trade balance, income payments, and other payments between one economy and the rest.

The current account is typically either in surplus or deficit. A deficit occurs when imports exceed exports and leads to more money leaving the economy than entering it, negatively affecting the currency’s strength. The opposite is true for a surplus, with more exports having a positive effect on the currency.

The eurozone releases a monthly report on the current account status.

France and Germany also release independent reports each month, which some investors focus on.

Sentiment

Another approach for attempting to predict EUR/AUD price movements is with confidence and sentiment reports.

Australian economic sentiment can be gauged using the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index, which asks 1200 consumers how optimistic or pessimistic they are about the future of the Australian economy.

Germany produces a widely followed sentiment report within the eurozone called the ZEW.

This asks 350 financial experts what they predict for the future health of the economy, split into positive, negative, or no change.

Many analysts will have predictions for these report results.

If the report exceeds expectations, the currency is likely to strengthen and likewise weaken for an underwhelming result.

For retail traders, some brokers may even provide a depiction, like the EUR AUD IG client sentiment, in order to make it easier for investors.

Trading The EUR/AUD

Optimum Window

One of the attractive features of forex investing is its availability for 24/7 trading.

This being said, it isn’t always a good idea to invest in EUR/AUD regardless of the time of day.

The best time to trade currencies is usually when they are most volatile and most liquid, as this brings the spreads down.

While there is no overlap between the Sydney and London sessions, historical data suggests investing and trading volumes are at a maximum during the overlap between the London and New York sessions (1300-1700 GMT).

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases a report on its balance of payments each quarter.

However, there are times of increased volatility and opportunity immediately after major economic releases for the European and Australian economies.

EUR/AUD Strategies

No perfect investing strategy for EUR/AUD exists, with exchange rates affected by a myriad of factors, including impossible-to-predict human factors.

There are many forex strategies online. Some entail technical EUR/AUD analysis based on pivot points and geometric patterns in live charts spanning 1 minute to 10 years.

When considering trading strategies and tools developed by other people, the best advice is to do your own due diligence. You should always verify facts and endeavor to understand the underlying factors influencing price changes.

Forex Brokers

Many leading forex brokers, like Plus 500 and Oanda, today offer a suite of EUR to AUD trading tools, including pip calculators and historical data such as 12 months, 5 years, 10 years, and 20 years charts.

Money converters, real-time trading ideas, the 1 EUR to AUD exchange rate history, and live graphs for plotting support and resistance levels are also available. Additionally, alongside live buy or sell quotes, some providers have futures products, next week forecasts, and longer-term predictions.

Always do your own research to find a broker that offers value in the areas you need.

Final Word On Trading EUR/AUD

The EUR/AUD, being a minor cross pair, offers volatility that traders would struggle to find with pairs involving the USD.

There are numerous resources available that provide information on both the EUR/AUD currencies, including major economic reports, outlook predictions, and trading strategies. It is important to exercise caution when using third-party resources for technical analysis, as what is valid today may not accurately represent a weekly forecast or be able to signal exchange rates in the future.

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